We named people like Bob "Oracles of Wrong".
In any big enough group there is always an Oracle of Wrong. They are
very precious. It's very hard to be right all the time, but less hard
to be wrong all the time.
Over decades I have puzzled over the existence of Oracles of Wrong.
One clue is that they always come from privileged backgrounds. Taking
the easy, wrong choice has never caused them any personal discomfort,
but has often saved them some minor inconvenience that the hard, right
choice would have cost.
I was initially expecting this to be about power law distributions,
such that Bob was right about the high impact 5%, and Alex about the
orders of magnitude less impactful 80%. If only decision spaces were